ENERGY SHIFTS FOR EMISSIONS MITIGATION
The latest IPCC report warns of global temperature raise beyond the 1.5oC by 2030 which is likely to cause melt down of polar ice and consequent rise in sea water levels. This puts almost half the world population at risk of getting drowned if they don't migrate. This is because, IPCC claims, the countries with high emission rates have not done enough to curb the pollution levels at the scale required fast enough. The situation has become so serious that IPCC is advising countries to fast track their climate efforts to reach a 'net zero emissions' status by 2050.
There are several steps the countries have to take immediately to abide by the IPCC dictum. We understand the Prime Minister has committed to make India a 'net zero emitter' by 2070. It is estimated that this itself will cost the exchequer $13 trillion. But what is it that India needs to do to achieve that status?
Phasing out coal: India is still a growing economy, now, unlike other developed countries. Likewise, it has a growing electricity demand to cater to its present 1.4 billion population that is expected to increase to 1.7 billion by 2050. India will then become the most populated country in the world bypassing China. India's power demand of 200 GW will rise to 4000 GW by 2050. Thus, coal will continue to be the main fuel for power generation till such time. India will have to reduce use of coal by 2070 and increase renewable energy capacity, if it has to meet its 'net zero' emission status.
Crude oil usage: Both production and use of crude oil must be curtailed to meet the climate change challenge. The crude oil producing countries are planning to phase out their production by 2034 at the earliest and 2050 latest. India's oil consumption will rise from the present 4MBPD to around 7MBPD by 2030 and 9MBPD by 2050. India is also geared to produce 25% of its own demand by 2030. Oil consumption will continue to grow till 2050. But by then, India will have to start curtailing its use and totally phase out by 2070
Renewable energy: India stands 4th in solar capacity and 4th in wind power capacity in the world. India has done well in meeting its renewable energy capacity targets of around 150 GW till date. It plans to increase it to 500 GW by 2030. But the capacity should rise to at least 2400 GW by 2050 and 7600 GW by 2070. Solar power capacity alone will have to reach 1700 GW and Wind power 550 GW by 2050. By 2070, solar power capacity will have to be 5600 GW and wind power 1800 GW.
Hydrogen: Hydrogen is now considered a viable alternative fuel for reducing emissions. Its present usage is limited to oil refining, ammonia and methanol production. It has great potential as fuel in transport industry, as a blend with natural gas in building heating systems, and in gas turbines for power generation. As hydrogen does not occur naturally in its pure form, it is produced from fossil fuels, methane or electrolysis of water or even biomass gasification. When hydrogen burns in air to form water vapour, it's exothermic reaction releases energy. It has been identified as THE viable alternate fuel to replace coal, oil and gas. It can play a vital role in reducing emissions in transport and steel industry. More importantly, hydrogen can play an important role in helping transport renewable energy over long distances.
Fuel cells with hydrogen as fuel act as battery to generate electricity, water and heat. These fuel cells can be used in transportation vehicles, industries, buildings as well as energy storage. The use of fuel cells, with hydrogen as fuel, has zero emissions contributing significantly to better carbon footprint.
However, presently, hydrogen is produced from natural gas making it expensive and polluting as it emanates carbon di oxide. This is 'Gray hydrogen'. If CO2 is captured and only hydrogen is released, then it is called 'Blue Hydrogen'. This is reportedly only 20% better than fossil fuels in protecting the climate. If hydrogen is produced through electrolysis by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen with renewable energy as power source, then it is called 'Green Hydrogen'. The only problem with hydrogen is its storage. It is highly flammable. However, it can be stored as compressed gas, in liquid form in cryogenic tanks or adsorbed on materials or in any other chemical form. This will be completely free from emissions. Combined with carbon capture, green hydrogen is THE answer to achieve 'Net Zero' emissions target propounded by the Prime Minister. Large scale Research and Development activities are being taken up to promote 'Green Hydrogen as the fuel of the future.
History of fuels as energy source:
The earliest fuels for producing heat and light mankind used millions of years ago are the plant matter and wood. About 10,000 years ago, mankind started using charcoal. As European forests started depleting, wood and charcoal got replaced by concealed fuels such as coal and its derivative coke. Coal became the most prominent energy source, mainly in China and India, as they had no other source to feed its teeming population. United States, Russia, Australia, China and India have substantial reserves of coal to last for several hundreds of years. But due to huge domestic consumption, China and India import coal from US, Russia and Australia. The global pressure for emissions reduction is forcing India to reduce usage of coal in power stations.
It was only in the early 19th century that crude oil, another concealed fossilised fuel, was discovered. However, China is credited to have used oil, without refining, as a fuel more than 2000 years ago. Then, in the 10th century, they started refining oil to produce lubricants and make fire bombs for military purposes. However, modern oil refining industry is reported to have been developed by a Canadian scientist, in mid 19th century, to refine coal and oil to form a liquid fuel called kerosene, which burned better than other fuels. This was mainly used to light lamps to overcome darkness. Further, development of internal combustion engines and their use in automobiles created the need for gasoline. This prompted the US, Romania and Germany to establish large scale petroleum oil refineries. Most refineries were established, during the World War II and after, to meet the demands of gasoline, aircraft fuel and kerosene. The Middle East accounted for almost 30% of oil reserves and became the largest suppliers of crude oil around the world.. India discovered its oil reserves in Assam in late 19th century and set up its first refinery in early 20th century. Since then, oil refined products found their way into all sectors – Industrial, Power sector, Commercial, Transport, Domestic as well as Agriculture. The oil industry dominated by the Middle East and Russia under OPEC+ brought in several regulations to control oil production, distribution and profits. This continued till end of 20th century when the scare of oil wells in the Middle East drying up and consequent depletion of refined products spread around the world.
Natural gas, as another concealed fossil fuel, was first noticed around 1000 BCE in Greece and later in China. Greece lit the gas to form a flame but China used the gas to boil sea water to make it drinkable. In early 18th century, natural gas was manufactured from coal to light streets and homes in Britain and the US. Although, Native Americans ignited naturally occurring natural gas underground during the 17th century, commercial natural gas was piped to homes and streets in the US only in early 19th century. It was only in late 19th century and early 20th century that natural gas was identified as a viable energy source and began to be used in homes, manufacturing industries and power stations. Natural gas is composed mainly of methane (85-95%) with tiny fractions of ethane, propane and butane. It is found to be the cleanest among all the fossil fuels mentioned above. Gas deposits are generally found near oil wells and in deeper strata in the earth. As the oil refining techniques improved in early 20th century, natural gas found its use in heating and cooking applications while oil refined products met the demands from the burgeoning transport industry on road, rail and air. Natural gas usage increased as the availability of crude oil started dwindling due to restrictions in trade and pricing. Today, natural gas is used in power generation, industries, commercial and domestic buildings as well as transport sector. Presently, USA, Russia and China happen to be the largest consumers of natural gas. But Russia accounts for the largest 25% of total reserves of natural gas. India's gas reserves are found in onshore in Assam and offshore on the western and eastern seas. However, natural gas usage in power generation is minimal (only 5-6%). It is mainly used as raw material in glass, brick and steel industries and as source of heat in fertiliser and chemical industries. India also imports LNG from the Middle East to meet its growing demand.
Energy in the future:
Worldwide, coal reserves are expected to last for another 100-110 years, oil reserves to last for 50-53 years and natural gas reserves to last for another 45-50 years at the present levels of consumption. Petroleum conservation activities that started at the time of scare of oil wells drying up in late 20th century (termed Energy Crisis) were expanded to cover all types of energy sources. Energy conservation and management as an effective productivity technique has helped extend the life of fossil energy sources and electricity to some extent. This gives a fairly comfortable timeline for decreasing fossil fuel usage and increasing renewable energy component and shift to 'Green Hydrogen' to curb emission levels before the end of this century. Once the fossil fuels completely disappear, we will have to resort to the electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen. That is when mankind has to take care to use earth's water sources effectively through resource management, lest we end up in water crisis!
It is reported that eight small countries – Bhutan, Comoros, Gabon, Guyana, Madagascar, Niue, Panama, Surinam - have already achieved 'Net Zero Emissions' level by 2019. Most countries like USA, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, etc. have committed to achieve 'Net Zero Emissions' target by 2050. China plans to reach the target by 2060 and India by 2070.
Isn't it bizarre that we have come to a stage to adopt hydrogen as energy source to protect the atmosphere, which is exactly what generates radiant energy at the Sun's core at extreme pressures and temperatures for billions of years? Although Sun's energy is by nuclear fusion of hydrogen neutrons into heavier helium to generate an equivalent of 3.846x1017GW that is radiated across the solar system, the radiant and convective energy within the sun's crust makes it a perpetual energy source. We are so blessed by the Sun.
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