ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS (aka CRISES) AROUND THE WORLD

World has seen many revolutions in the past eight hundred years. We are now on the threshold of another major revolution in the coming five or six decades. Where does it take us through is anybody's guess. One thing is certain. This will bring a dramatic change in our life styles. How Gen Z, Gen Alpha and Gen Beta will live will be totally different from how we have lived all these years. All our traditional beliefs and rituals and religious faiths will go for a toss. Life will depend totally on technological advancements. Human interventions will diminish. "Survival of the fittest' will probably change to 'Survival of the smartest'.

Religious uprisings played a part in early revolutions. Christianity spread from Roman Empire to other parts of Europe and the Middle East with the existence, preachings and crucifixion of Jesus Christ in the first century. While proselytizing for Christianity continued, Prophet Mohammed rose to claim revelation from God in the 7^th century. He began to attract followers and Islam religion found its place in the Arabian Peninsula. It later spread to the Middle East and some parts of Europe, Africa and Southeast Asia.

Explorations on sea:

The motivating factors for exploration on sea were many like spreading Christianity across the world, finding new routes for expanding trade via seas to avoid middlemen, scientific knowledge about unknown territories, acquiring wealth like gold, search for newer items and gadgets for a better living and medicines for well being and of course curiosity and adventure for glory. Modern Portugal established itself as a Christian country after initial conflicts with the Romans and Muslims in the 13^th century. It has a long shoreline and many harbours and rivers flowing westward into the Atlantic Ocean harboured several navigators and mathematicians in the early 14^th century. These navigators were successful in building merchant ships called 'Naos' which they used to explore. 

Spaniards were the first to explore other areas in the world and amassed great wealth as early as the fifteenth century. This prompted England, France and Netherlands to establish their trade networks in America during 15^th and 16^th centuries. They brought several slaves from Africa. But, by the 17^th century, the British were successful in defeating other settlements and establish colonies in the present day North America. When the British East India Company sought to sell China tea without taxes, the Native Americans destroyed the shipment of loads of tea in the sea in Boston. This raised a series of protests in British America culminating in American independence to form the United States of America in 1783 through a Treaty of Paris recognised by Great Britain and other nations of the world. However, the constitution was drafted and finally adopted in 1789. But it took three years for all the states to comply with the constitution and abide by it.

Industrial revolution:

In spite of agricultural revolutions and such explorations, poor economic status prevailed in European countries. This prompted an industrial revolution to achieve widespread stable manufacturing processes beginning in the Great Britain around 1760. In the 19th century, this revolution had spread to other European countries and the USA. This resulted in shifting from manual production processes to large scale mechanization and use of steam and water power for locomotive actions and power generation. Textile industry was the first to make use of this development. Industrial production increased vis-à-vis population. Britain was a pioneer in this effort and became the leading country in the world in terms of trade that helped set up colonies in America and Africa. Thus Britain acquired military and political hegemony.

World Wars I & II:

The French revolution took place due to social, political and economic reasons by the end of 18^th century led by Napoleon Bonaparte and later by Louis XVIII. This led to abolition of monarchy and a republican government was formed. All this resulted in establishment of separate states and countries like Germany, Austria, Hungary, Serbia, etc. But nationalism, military strength, alliances, took shape. Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary by Gavrilo princip in Bosnia, Serbia, is believed to be the spark to enrage European nations into World War I in 1914. This war lasting five years resulted in widespread destruction, food shortages and deaths of millions of people. Germany accepted defeat and forced many to leave the country for safer places to live. Adolf Hitler became the leader of the Nazi party in Germany and turned it from democratic rule to autocratic rule. When Germany invaded Poland for expansionism, it resulted in World War II with Great Britain and France opposing it. Soviet Union and the United States also joined the war against Germany. Japan joined Germany to oppose USA and Soviet Union's hegemony. In order to end the devastating war, the US dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki towns (military cantonments) in Japan that killed lakhs of civilians. Japan was forced to end the war and surrender in 1945. There were several repercussions after the devastating war. The United States continued as a world leader, so also the Soviet Union and a cold war started between the two. The US controlled the Western Europe while the Soviet Union controlled the Eastern Europe. UK and France had to decolonize their holdings in Asia and Africa.

The United Nations was set up mainly to prevent world wars in future and avoid large scale destruction and loss of lives and economic depression. Cold war between the US and the Soviet Union showed up in the fight between dictatorial North and democratic South Korea that has kept the land divided to date. The cold war was also seen in Vietnam between democratic North and republic of South that spilled over to Laos and Cambodia. The war ended with these three countries turning communist in 1975. However, it is a pity that wars continue to take place between neighbouring countries for different reasons in some parts of the world even to this day.

Rising of India and South Africa:

A Revolution had already started in the Indian region to attain independence from the British rule when the first war of mutiny took place in 1857. When the world wars erupted, Britain had got preoccupied and found it difficult to continue colonization. After several liberation attempts and nonviolent movements, gradual decolonization led to independence in 1947 albeit with separation of India and Pakistan. This partition resulted in one of the largest mass migration with about 10-15 million people crossing borders. There were also atrocities committed with large scale violence and bloodshed. A large number of deaths numbering up to two million also occurred. Many had to spend their lives as refugees on both sides of the border till alternate arrangements could be made. During the same time, South Africa experienced apartheid (Racial segregation by the whites against the local Africans). Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi, an Indian, with a law degree from London, who worked as a legal counsel for expat Indians in Durban in South Africa, helped the local Indians to fight court cases against apartheid. After twenty odd years, he decided to return to India and worked with locals and helped fight for Indian Independence. South Africa also won their fight against White rule in 1994 and apartheid got abolished when Nelson Mandela was appointed as the first African President.

Oil energy crisis:

In the early 1970's, oil producing countries were the US, the USSR, the Middle East, Libya, Venezuela and Indonesia. But as oil from the Middle Eastern countries were available at a reasonable price compared to local production costs, export of oil from these countries constituted 60-70%. Oil crisis originally started with embargo on oil supplies by the Organisation of Arab Oil Exporting countries (OAPEC) on countries that supported Israel after an unsuccessful attempt by Egypt and Syria in 1967 war to get back annexed territories. The targeted countries were Canada, Japan, Netherlands, UK and the USA. In March 1974, OAPEC lifted the embargo but raised the oil price by 300% and also cut oil production. That is how they constituted Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to include other oil exporting countries in case they had to use oil as a weapon for controlling wars between countries.

The Arab countries accumulated wealth but it affected the economy of the rest of the world. This was the first oil crisis. Based on the technology for oil drilling, proven reserves of oil in countries other than Middle East were estimated to last just another three decades if the consumption continued at the same pace. By that time, crude oil refined products like petrol, diesel, kerosene, gas, furnace oil, bitumen etc. had already found widespread usage in all sectors in all countries. In 1979, there was a big revolution in Iran culminating in the establishment of Islamic Republic of Iran. This also caused disruptions in oil production and availability resulting in second oil crisis. This created havoc around the world and paved way for conserving oil resources by whatever means mainly in oil importing countries. However, over a period time, oil drilling technology developed and new oil reserves were also discovered that would last for much longer time than anticipated. So the dwindling oil reserves theory proved to be a false alarm. Simultaneously technology helped improve energy efficiency of oil consuming machinery. Initially Natural gas that released during drilling for oil was flared as there was no use for the same. In later years, natural gas was used for street lamps. Nowadays, its use has spread to cooking in domestic homes, heating in industries and as fuel in transportation. Production of natural gas has also increased lessening the burden on oil products. In the present estimates, oil reserves are estimated to last for another five decades at least.

Awareness of dwindling reserves of oil however helped establish finite resources of coal as well and also look for alternate sources of renewable energy like solar and wind. This resulted in identifying measures to conserve coal also. As coal and oil were the main fuels for generation of electric power, electricity conservation to reduce dependence on coal and oil was also necessitated. Thus overall energy conservation through improving energy efficiency in all sectors has stayed as a necessary management objective.

This oil crisis made state run oil companies in Venezuela bankrupt in 1983. Inflation crept in the ensuing years and the government failed to control it with the result it went into spiralling hyperinflation. The US is working with the Venezuelan government to bring back its dignity and democracy in place.

Technology revolution:

The first and second oil crisis, one may say, was the clarion call for energy resources. Major advancement was the development of Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFLs) by General Electric Engineer to replace energy guzzling incandescent lamps (ILs) in 1978. CFLs were found to use one fourth of energy that was used by ILs. Although costing much higher than ILs, the CFLs were estimated to save as much as five times its price over its life time. CFLs became very popular to save electricity for the next three decades. But they had inherent problems like fear of toxic mercury pollution, flickering, initial warm up time and disposal issues. By 2008, Philips developed Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) to replace CFLs that had higher energy efficiency, longer life, instant brightness and no fear of mercury pollution. Development of LEDs have had tremendous impact in the availability of flat television screens, sign boards, traffic signals and display screens, street lights, decorative lighting systems, etc.

The same period also saw development of sensors and actuators that can measure vital parameters like pressure, temperature, flow and also duration. This helped convert manual to automatic operations and improve operating efficiencies of industrial machinery. Present day vehicles come with automatic gear transmission system as against manual systems. Additional digital controls incorporate safety features that have helped increase speed limits on roads and in air. These have made driving a pleasurable experience nowadays. This also gave way to wireless operations with remote controls, computer mouse, etc.

The other remarkable developments in the 21^st century have been improvements in solar and wind energy generators, Laser devices in medical, industrial and entertainment fields, barcodes, Lithium rechargeable batteries, 3D printing, drones (unmanned aerial vehicles), tubeless tyres, health devices like pacemakers, artificial organs (prosthesis) to replace kneecaps, severed limbs, kidneys, genetic engineering in medicine, agriculture and biotechnology, etc. Drones have become very handy in agriculture operations for spraying fertiliser and water, aerial video photography and also speedier courier services. This has paved way for incorporating digital control devices in machines and devices for productivity improvement and efficiency. All these technological innovations and developments have made our lives simpler, faster, smarter and more energy efficient.

Several countries including US, China, Russia, France, Japan and India have successfully progressed in space exploration and missions. Rise of private space companies have launched International Space Station which serves as a platform to conduct experiments in space environment. Successful missions have been launched to moon. Other planets like Mars are on the anvil. Such space explorations may pave way for economical international internet accessibility.

Computer and Information Technology Revolution:

Once the world wars ended and decolonization took place around the world, peace seems to have returned with countries prospering due to trade and business. However, during the World War II, a need for breaking codes and calculating trajectories at the earliest possible time led to the development of electronic computers by the end of the war. From the early abacus to slide rule for mathematical calculations, computers were found useful in managing large data base among scientists and researchers and managing inventories and accounting processes in businesses. These main frame computers were large in size initially working with transistors. Then came the Integrated Circuits (ICs) in 1950s. Dramatic development over the years led to micro processors in 1970s that gave rise to personal computers making it easy and comfortable for people working on it. These microprocessors took care of all functions like arithmetic, logic and control functions. This was the era of transformation from analog computers to digital computers. This required a hardware system, a software program consisting of algorithms with codes and logic, a memory space and a battery to run all these systems. By now, many businesses, airlines, banks and other trades had adopted the computerised system for day to day operations.

When the year turned from 31 December 1999 to 1 January 2000, there was anxiety around the world if the software program (developed and incorporated by software engineers of whom many Indians were a part of) with built in logic and code could safely move to 2K in the date and time slots. Fortunately, the computers did transition to the New Year and operations continued without any hitch. Technology helped reduce the size of personal computers to laptop computers with flat screen monitors and tablets. The basic wireless mobile phones had been developed to make and receive calls only while on the move. The present day smart phones evolving from these basic phones, besides being devices for making and receiving calls, can do several other operations like storing documents, clicking photos and videos, sending and receiving messages, transacting with bank accounts and accessing the internet for information from around the world. These smart mobile phones have captured the worldwide market and have become a synonym to an individual citizen card. Modern sensors have been developed that can receive signals from text, voice or movement and act accordingly. In the present times, most transactions for business, trade and finance are done online through software Applications (Apps) developed for such purposes. Accessibility to internet has made available cloud services for storage and retrieval of applications, videos, photos, etc.

Climate Change:

Although gas emissions from power stations and transport vehicles were considered the main cause of increased climate temperatures (also called global warming) around the world as early as 1896, they were not considered an issue of concern till 1970. Initially this was viewed as a natural cause of sun's activity or volcanic eruptions. In the year 1970, for the first time, Earth day was pronounced to protect all life on earth as an environmental calling. In the last fifty years, after significant research and analyses, it has been accepted that gas emissions as the major cause for climate change that in turn affect global temperatures, weather patterns and seasons. Another major fear is the rise in ocean water levels that are likely to drown towns along the seashore causing huge loss of biodiversity.

The emissions of gases affecting the environment are called greenhouse gases (GHGs) that constitute largely carbon dioxide that comes from burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas in power stations and vehicles. Obviously, the big economies of the world like the US, Canada, Japan and Europe account for 50% contribution of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, despite their low population, due to their industrialisation and growth over the past 170 years that has resulted in climate change so far. The other major constituent of GHGs is methane which comes from agriculture, fossil fuel extraction and waste decomposition in addition to digestion process in livestock. China, India and Brazil, although comparatively smaller economies with bigger population levels also contribute significantly to GHGs. Now it is considered a serious matter demanding early action to combat climate change and prevent a rise in global temperature beyond 2°C since pre-industrialisation. UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) has been formed at the UN level to involve all developed and fast developing countries. Paris agreement adopted in 2016 and signed by 196 countries, is the latest international treaty to limit global temperature rise and provide financial support as needed to developing countries to initiate actions towards achieving the same.

COVID 19:

COVID 19 is a contagious viral disease that erupted in January 2020 from Wuhan, China and spread worldwide forcing WHO to declare it as a pandemic. Many contracted the disease with no symptoms and many more suffered with fever, fatigue, cough, breathing difficulties and loss of smell and taste. Fortunately, vaccine was developed on an emergency basis and injected into the human population to control the pandemic. In addition, people were advised to wear masks, stay indoors, maintain distances, avoid crowded places and such other measures. Some countries also declared complete lockdowns in some cities for some weeks to avoid the spread the disease any further. The pandemic resulted in business closures, loss of jobs, mental breakdowns, disruptions in supply chain management, etc. About seven million deaths have been reported worldwide due to this pandemic alone. People have now become aware of consequences of such pandemics and have started taking precautions during any viral attacks.

Artificial Intelligence:

Artificial intelligence (AI) is an extension of computation by the computers which mimics human intelligence to include surfing, logic, reasoning, problem solving, decision making, etc. This field has developed and expanded in the last two decades so much that it is used in voice commands, machine operations, medical diagnosis, predictions, photo and video shopping effects, data analyses, etc. AI has been found to be most useful in making robots to work as waiters in hotels, assistants, vehicle drivers, desk secretaries, vendors, language translators, etc. In times to come, AI may diversify in many other areas where humans work. This is creating a sort of anxiety that it may lead to loss of jobs for working class. Only time will tell!

Revolutions up to the end of World War II affected the whole world economy. Oil energy crisis woke up the populace to reality of finite fossil fuel reserves. Technology revolution has made life much easier. IT revolution has made our lives smarter. The latest climate change and global warming has again put us back to primitive situations like less fossil usage and increased green cover with trees. COVID 19 has warned us that we are still not completely safe with immunity. We have to wait and see where AI revolution will take us!